IdolHeadEd.com - Making the Case for Blake

Idolista writes
The Idolhead has made the case for Jordin sneaking in for a win. Now I’d like to make the case for Blake Lewis.

Like political conspiracy theorists, we Idol-watchers are constantly on the lookout for underlying currents and trends in the course of the competition. Being a devoted lifelong champion of the underdog, for me the fun lies in identifying the ‘dark horse’ in the competition; the individual who seemingly comes out of nowhere and sneaks into the final 3 or 4 without the rest of America really knowing how they got there.

The Idolhead thinks it could be Jordin. The Idolista thinks it just might be Blake Lewis.

By this point you may be scoffing at me and saying that Blake has always been considered a possibility to win, but I beg to differ. I don’t think there’s a soul in America right now who doesn’t honestly believe that Melinda Doolittle will win. Short of being stuck by a rare disease leading to tone deafness and/or muteness, or of being struck by a bus, Melinda is the obvious winner. But what if……

What if Lakisha improves?

If Lakisha can regain some of the ground she’s lost – and truthfully, she hasn’t lost a lot – in recent weeks, to the point where she’s once again neck-and-neck with Melinda (pardon the unfortunate anatomical reference there), the voter demographic who will like and vote for these women and their style will likely be split 50-50. Say there are 40% of America's voters who will vote for an R & B artist, if the girls are close in appeal this means each girl will capture 20% of the total vote. This is far from an impossible figure, as last week’s dialidol results show. Melinda had approximately 19% of the vote, while Lakisha had approximately 15%. That leaves 60% of the voters yet to decide, and it’s not outside the realm of possibility that as the number of contestants shrink, 21% or more of those remaining voters could choose a contestant like Blake.

What if Sanjaya finally goes?

Tough as it is to believe, some of the people who vote for Sanjaya are actually serious about their votes. Those voters more than likely will change their voting allegiance to a candidate who is male, youthful and fresh. Blake could fit this category. Let’s presume that ½ of Sanjaya’s voters are serious voters. Last week Sanjaya had approximately 14% of the total vote. I don’t think it’s a stretch to presume that ½ of Sanjaya’s serious voters could migrate to Blake, so by adding that 3.5% to Blake’s score of 11.5%, this alone raises him to 15%, definitely putting him in competition with the top two divas.

What if Chris Sligh’s voters migrate to Blake?

Last week Chris’s losing effort brought in approximately 9% of the vote. Considering all the remaining candidates, Blake seems the most likely to attract Chris’s voters. Let’s conservatively assume that ½ of Chris’s voters would migrate to Blake. If we take the 15% Blake could hope to receive sans Sanjaya, and ad 4.5% of the vote coming from Chris’s voters, this takes Blake to 19.5% -- right in line with the divas!

What if Gina is voted out?

Gina’s voters are another group who might naturally migrate to Blake. While Blake is hardly ‘edgy’ or a rocker, he’s still a better fit for Gina’s demographic than most of the other contestants would be. Gina had a particularly good night last week, so let’s trim down the approximately 12.5% she received down to 11% and give ½ of those voters to Blake in the event of her departure. If all these events happen as I’m described, it’s well within the possibility that Blake could win the contest, adding 5.5% to 19.5% would give him a pull-away lead of 24%.

Finally, I'd like to make the case for Blake's intelligence as a competitor. He has repeatedly made the right decisions, be it on choice of songs, type of presentation, wardrobe choices, and when or when not to use his trademark, the beatboxing. He has real knowledge of not only how to make music, but how to craft it and package it. Having the ability to arrange your music gives the contestant an advantage that I'm not sure can be fully realized by the average fan. Whether Blake is getting good advice from someone on the outside, or whether he's experienced enough to know these things himself, this particular intangible has and can continue to really make a difference for him in this competition. If you ever doubt the power of intangibles, you have only to witness the success of Taylor Hicks last year, who was ALL about the intangibles.

Clearly this is pure speculation and not based on any hard statistical data (please, no angry statisticians should come beating at my door). Nor does it take into account variances in performance quality in upcoming weeks. But you can certainly see how it’s possible that Blake could sneak in the door between Melinda and Lakisha and walk away a winner. The biggest detriment to that happening would be if Lakisha is voted out and the bulk of her votes falls to Melinda. But if Jordin eclipses Lakisha, which isn’t outside the realm of possibility, the scenario could remain the same, only with different diva players.

After all, this IS Idol and anything can, and is likely to, happen between now and May. And we Idol conspiracy theorists just LOVE it that way.

Idolista, in Denver with her head in the clouds

Agree or disagree with the Idolista? Email me at Idolista@hotmail.com