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 Odds change from day to day and depending on how heavy betters go for any particular thing to bet on betters can change the odds every minute. This looks like a season of heavy betting.
The odds for a female winner right now are -184 which means you wouldn’t want to wager on that. For a guy to win it is +162. Not really a surprise. What is a surprise is which of the contestants is making a move without singing a note. The initial numbers put out are a starting point so it is very common for the odds to change almost immediately. First here is a list of the contestants who have moved down (becoming longer shots). It will go from biggest loser to smallest.
From to Loss
Katelyn Epperly +5800 +6543 +1743
Michael Lynche +2500 +3028 +1528
Aaron Kelly +4100 +5309 +1209
John Park +4400 +5520 +1120
Tim Urban +1500 +2417 +917
Jermaine Sellers +1150 +2014 +864
Jose Munoz +6000 +6767 +767
Lee Dewyze +5500 +6206 +706
Tyler Grady +1700 +2300 +675
Alex Lambert +3500 +3951 +451
Haleley Vaughn +1300 +1597 +297
Crystal Bowersox +600 +743 +143
Lacey Brown + 2800 +2941 +141
Katie Stevens +460 +558 +98
Didi Benami +550 +643 +93
Now the winners of the week. From smallest gainer to largest.
From To Gain
Ashley Rodriguez +750 +728 -22
Michelle Delamor +5100 +4779 -123
Casey James +1000 +855 -145
Andrew Garcia +550 +367 -183
Lilly Scott +5500 +4779 -721
Todrick Hall +2500 +1634 -866
Paige Miles +4400 +3401 -999
Janell Wheeler +2500 +1315 -1185
And the winner is…..
Siobhan Magnus +4100 +1181 -2919
So I guess the odds makers read Idolhead Ed or at least it seems like it. My article pointing out Siobhan being a sleeper talent got the bets heading her way. To be fair I know those folks up in Barnstable, Mass. and the hinterlands know how talented she is and you know those Mass. folks can see a sure bet. The odds move Siobhan made was the most dramatic I can remember at this stage of the odds. To be fair, Andrew and a few other contestants couldn’t have moved that far because they were already so low.
This move does mean that the money is moving her way. If she gives a very good to awesome performance on night one, those numbers will move into the low triples immediately. At +1181 she is considered in the serious threat category. In fact all those who picked up ground in the low quads along with the double digit to low triple digit losers are almost certain to be singing on the big stage.
The big losers like Katelyn Epperly, Michael Lynche, Aaron Kelly, and John Park will have to have an amazing semi to move on. It can’t be just a’ight. I can’t stress enough how much song choice will play week one. A wrong song choice will absolutely get you eliminated night one. I can see Katelyn picking the wrong song like she did in her initial audition. Her nerves will play a part as well. I believe nerves will play a part in everyone’s performances except for Ashley, Casey, Andrew, Lacey, Crystal, Katie, Lee, Tyler, and least of all Siobhan. Katie wouldn’t be the dumbest person in the competition picking “At Last” to make her debut with even though she auditioned with it.
Michelle, Paige, John Park, and Joe Munoz, could maybe get caught in that “try too hard” arena once they see how little to no screen time they got. I look for Joe and Katelyn to stumble early and nerves taking a serious bite out of Tim Urban.
These odds will become more realistic after Thursday. If you want a real long shot $100 will get you $6767 if Joe Munoz wins. I might remind you that David Cook started off as a +5000. A safer bet would be $100 on Andrew and $100 on a male to win. But we’ll see how things shake out this Thursday.
Note: Allison will be singing her new single (way better than her first I'm here to say) "Scars" on Thursday. Let the real CD sales begin.
Is it Tuesday yet?
Idolhead Ed
Posted on Monday, February 22 @ 18:33:24 CST by ed
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